Do not claim to know why subtraction ran over

Nine episodes subtracted against their publishers' masters land between 82% and
110% of what the declared-versus-served gap implies, and all but one are over.
The readout said the excess was advertising baked into what the publisher serves,
which the gap cannot see. That was a guess, and on inspection it is wrong at
least some of the time.

Heavyweight "#70 Cayden" is over by 46 seconds across four candidates. Its first
candidate opens on `Today's episode, "Caiton."` and `[MUSIC]` -- a title card
and a music sting, neither of which is advertising and neither of which appears
in a publisher's written transcript either. Subtraction answers "not in the
master", which is a superset of "advertising": whisper's own [MUSIC] and `>>`
markers qualify too.

So the readout now states the overrun and names both possible causes instead of
picking one. Tightening the edges is a separate piece of work and needs to be
measured in both directions -- the same lesson MinRunSamples taught, where
improving one show doubled a false positive on another.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018AwnALZL6bD4VBtATDVv3B

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